Our base-case scenario has shifted from a fragile stabilization going into 2020 to a global recession, with a large contraction in the first half of 2020 and some recovery into year-end.

Given the shutdown in economies across the globe, the oil shock, and credit crunch, the base case economic outlook has rapidly shifted to include a period of negative growth in the U.S. and at least a short (two-quarter) global recession.

While the fears surrounding the coronavirus have weighed on sentiment and markets, improving fundamentals and highly supportive monetary policy continue to underpin risk assets.