The Starting Line for the US Yield Curve
January 6, 2025 — Two key components drive the shape of the yield curve: expectations for the short-term interest rate and expectations for the term premium. The market expects the fiscal deficit to continue growing and for the Fed to be all but done cutting rates.. Given strong economic data and lack of details around Trump’s economic policies, interest rates are near fair value; however, we see risks as skewed to the downside given current valuations.
Featured Insights
Fixed Income
Three Questions for 2025
December 9, 2024 -- Fixed income markets face key questions that will shape their direction in the year ahead. Could the disinflationary trend of recent years reverse...
Municipal Fixed Income
The Most Wonderful Sector of the Year . . . for Munis
December 19, 2024 -- Prepaid gas bonds are issued by municipal agencies to secure a long-term supply of natural gas or other form of energy for one or more municipalities.
Municipal Fixed Income
A Deep Dive on Prepaid Gas Bonds
December 19, 2024 -- Prepaid gas bonds are the fastest growing sector in the Intermediate Municipal Bond Index. It continues to offer a significant yield pickup compared to...