Goldilocks and the Five Rate Cuts
January 8, 2024 — The mix of factors that drove macro markets last year are largely the same to start this year. The main difference is that markets are now priced for perfection. Our view is that the current path of the federal funds rate is too aggressive in its timing – inflation and growth will not slow enough to warrant a March rate cut, which could see interest rates rise modestly in the near-term.
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Fixed Income
The Laborious March to Fed Cuts
December 11, 2023 -- Labor market resilience has been a prime factor in the strength of the US economy in 2023 and an important input into the timing of Fed rate cuts in . . .
Municipal Fixed Income
The Most Wonderful Time of the Year . . . for Munis
December 5, 2023 -- The holiday season coincides with a seasonal pattern in the municipal market that provides a sound basis for putting money to work. . .
Fixed Income
Fedspeak Lifts Markets
December 4, 2023 -- Last week, one of the most hawkish members of the FOMC sowed the seeds for a Fed pivot in 2024, and markets responded accordingly. . .