Sage Advice Quarterly Market Review 2Q23

July 10, 2023 — Heading into the back half of 2023, the prevailing narrative seems to be that we are slowing down but only gradually, which makes a soft landing possible but also keeps central banks hawkish for longer. This has allowed risk assets to run and has created some complacency toward macro headwinds in our view. We see a much more challenged back half as stimulus money runs dry and economies feel the increasing impact of restrictive monetary policy and tightening credit conditions. From an economic perspective, this should translate into a mild recession in 2024 in the US with some downside global risk.