Sage Advice 1Q25 Market Review + Outlook

April 22, 2025 — Signs of consumer fatigue, sticky inflation, and aggressive government job cuts were already beginning to erode sentiment and prompt lower consensus growth forecasts by mid-first quarter; however, post-Liberation Day, investors must now recalibrate for significantly higher tariffs and the possibility of a drawn-out global trade war. Implications include a shallow recession in the back half of this year, further downward earnings revisions, inflationary pressure, and continued volatility in not only risk assets but in rates and currencies as well.